An unprecedented drought is hitting the European continent, from the dry reservoirs in the Iberian Peninsula to the drop of water levels in the Danube and other major arteries.
Most of Europe has been affected by extreme drought. On the latest map of the European Drought Observatory, 47% of the EU territories are in a drought “warning” state, and 17% are in the highest “alert” level. Across the English Channel, there has been almost no rain in southeast England for nearly 150 days, and the rainfall in the south is only 10% of the average rainfall in July. On Tuesday, Britain issued a yellow “extreme high temperature” warning.
Source: European Drought Observatory.
France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are facing water shortage, and the riverbed in Europe is drying up. Water use is basically restricted throughout France, and more than 100 cities rely on trucks to provide drinking water. At the beginning of August, the average capacity of Spanish reservoirs was only 40%, far below the 10-year average of 60%. Some rural areas in the northeast of the country even have only four hours of drinking water left every day. The water level of the Po River in Italy has dropped to the lowest level in 70 years, which is not suitable for agricultural irrigation. The valley is 30% of Italy’s agricultural production base, and farmers are forced to reduce crop cultivation.
There has been no heavy rain in western, central and southern Europe for nearly two months, and the drought is expected to continue. Andrea Toreti, a senior researcher at the European Drought Observatory, said that Europe suffered from extreme drought in 2018, but this year’s situation is even worse, the worst in 500 years. He predicted that in the next three months, the risk of drought in western Europe, central Europe and Britain would remain high.
Peter Hoffman, a meteorologist in potsdam institute for climate impact research, Germany, said that the drought in Europe is one of the results of climate change. In fact, it is getting worse all the year round, and only summer makes people feel the deepest.
Extreme drought has had serious consequences for European trade flows, food prices and energy security.
Lose the supply chain
This historic drought is threatening European trade.
As the “economic lifeline” of Europe, the Rhine River has been seriously evaporated, which has affected the transportation of goods. At present, the water level of the Rhine River is the lowest since 2007, and the water depth of some sections is less than one meter, so most cargo ships cannot sail with full load. On August 10th, the relevant departments predicted that the water level in the Cobb section of the Rhine River may drop below 40cm in the early morning of the 12th, and will continue to drop in the next few days.
The Rhine River, which originated in the Swiss Alps, is the key to the inland waterway network in Europe. It flows through more than 1000 kilometers, passes through industrial zones in Switzerland and Germany, and then flows into the North Sea in Rotterdam, a busy port in the Netherlands. According to Eurostat data, rivers and canals on the European continent transport more than 1 ton of goods for each EU resident every year on average. As far as transportation function is concerned, its contribution to the region’s economy is about 80 billion dollars.
Moody’s said in a research report to evaluate the damage of chemical producers along the Rhine River that the low water level reduced the barge’s ability to transport raw materials and finished products along the river, which brought further pressure to the supply chain.
This will drag down the regional economy. Albert Jan Swart, a transportation economist at ABN Amro Bank NV, said that the impact of the low water level of the Rhine is far more serious than the loss of 5 billion euros caused in 2018. According to the data of Kiel Institute for World Economics, the problem of the Rhine waterway in 2018 reduced Germany’s GDP growth by about 0.4%. Germany is particularly dependent on the Rhine for its energy supply. The relevant companies have formulated emergency plans. ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, set up a crisis group, which meets every day. In order to transport LNG to ludwigshafen factory in the north of the Rhine River, BASF, a German chemical company, specially rented a 110m barge.
The situation of the Danube, the second longest river in Europe, is also not optimistic. The Danube winds 2869 kilometers across Central Europe and reaches the Black Sea. It is an important channel for grain and other trade and is currently facing congestion. The water level of the Danube near Budapest has dropped by 1.5 meters in the past three weeks. Most of Lake Veyron near Budapest has turned into dry mud, which stranded the ship.
Gabriel Techera, director of investor relations at Transport Trade Services, Romania’s largest inland river freight company, said that he had never encountered such a serious situation in the past 20 years.
In order to deepen the navigation channel and keep the ships unblocked, the coastal countries Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia have begun to dig sand urgently.
The new food crisis
Drought has affected the agricultural harvest in Europe, and the output of staple food and specialty food in the European Union has been affected.
In July, the Joint Research Center of the European Commission warned that due to the hot and dry weather, the unit output of EU agriculture will decrease, and the output of corn, sunflower and soybean is expected to decrease by 8%-9%.
German farmers predict that wheat production will drop by about 10%. In France, the fourth largest wheat exporter in the world, the Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the output of soft wheat and hard wheat will be reduced by 4% and 14% respectively compared with last year. Belgian farmers say crops such as potatoes and beans are being affected. Romania, the world’s leading corn exporter, said that drought would lead to as much as 35% loss of production. In Italy, five northern and central regions have declared a state of emergency. Drought threatens rice planting, and farmers expect to lose 30%.
Specialty products have also been hit, especially olive oil in the south. Luis Planas, Spain’s agriculture minister, said that if the olive harvest in Spain is affected, it is expected that the price of vegetable oil already affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will remain high. Europe’s highly respected wine industry is also facing difficulties, and the high temperature in Spain and France will make the grape production lower than usual.
According to CNIEL, the Dairy Committee, French livestock farmers reported that pastures were drying up, which put pressure on the production of milk, butter and cream. In eastern Hungary, honey production is also affected. According to Coldiretti, a farm association, in the delta south of Venice, the interruption of rivers leads to the decay of algae, thus reducing the oxygen on which clams and mussels depend.
Alessandro Faccioli, the owner of a trawler in Veneto, said that about 30% of clam fishing in this area had been destroyed this summer, and at least 2,300 local fishermen and workers may lose their jobs.
Aggravate the energy crisis
Extreme drought threatens the utilization of energy, mainly water resources, and intensifies the energy crisis in Europe.
The low water level of rivers and lakes is endangering hydropower plants. Glenn Rickson, head of global European power analysis at Standard & Poor’s, said that in the second quarter of this year, the hydropower generation in Western Europe decreased by 20% compared with the average.
In France and Spain, the reservoir water level in July was at its lowest level in more than 20 years. Spain has the largest number of dams per capita in Europe. In August, the national reservoir storage capacity was only 40.4%, which seriously affected the national hydropower generation. In order to protect reservoirs with low water level, Norway in northern Europe is going to restrict the export of electricity.
Nuclear power plants have not been spared. As an exporter of electricity, France has the largest number of nuclear power plants in Europe. However, only about half of the nuclear reactors in the country are available now. This week, EDF, a major French power company, was forced to restrict nuclear energy production because the Rhone and Garonne rivers were too hot to effectively cool nuclear reactors. In Switzerland, one of the country’s three nuclear power plants was also forced to cut production.
Europe is coping with the natural gas crisis and soaring electricity prices, and the drought has further aggravated the crisis of the energy system. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the natural gas from Russia was greatly reduced, and Germany restarted several coal-fired power plants. It is estimated that the amount of coal transported through the Rhine will reach 40 million tons this year, but according to the estimation of the German Transport and Logistics Association, only 65% of the plan can be completed in the end.
Energy company Uniper revealed that the output of two coal-fired power plants along the Rhine River will be affected by supply problems. Last week, BASF, a chemical giant, said that the possibility of reducing production could not be ruled out due to soaring freight rates. Switzerland relies on the Rhine for most of its oil, and now its fuel cost has also increased.
“Continued high temperatures, as well as wildfires, shrinking rivers and rising land temperatures that can be observed from space, have undoubtedly caused losses to agriculture and other industries. In the face of economic losses caused by heat waves and droughts, the energy crisis in Europe is simply a drop in the bucket, and its impact is relatively small. Josef Aschbach, Director-General of the European Space Agency, said.